Market

Here’s what’s in store for the Manhattan housing market in 2018

Photo: Robert Clark

The Manhattan housing market proved to be relatively stable in 2017, with both prices and sales volume remaining virtually unchanged from the previous year.

But in 2018, Manhattan homebuyers could see prices move in a direction they haven’t since the Great Recession — down. That’s according to a new year-end report by the listing site CityRealty.com.

This past year, the average price of a Manhattan apartment, including both co-ops and condos, was $2.2 million, unchanged from 2016. Also unchanged was the average condo price at $3.1 million — a record high in 2016. The average co-op price rose slightly from $1.3 million in 2016 to $1.4 million in 2017.

The median Manhattan condo price rose slightly from $1.8 million in 2016 to $1.9 million in 2017, while the median co-op price jumped from $818,000 to $838,000 over the same period.

Growth in the co-op market is expected to continue, with this year’s sales volume set to surpass 2016’s total. CityRealty.com is projecting $8.9 billion in co-op sales by the year’s end.

At the same time, the average price per square foot for Manhattan condos fell from $1,888 to $1,868.

But while prices have remained steady, Manhattan’s affordability problem has worsened.

“Just 13 percent of the dollars spent on all Manhattan real estate in 2017 went to apartments that sold for under $1 million, the lowest percentage in at least the past five years,” says CityRealty.com in the report.

Sales volume for 2017 is projected to come in at $25.9 billion, above the $25.8 billion recorded last year. Should total sales volume hit $25.9 billion, it would be a new record. By year’s end, some 12,000 units are expected to be sold, up 147 units from last year.

Meantime, the new construction submarket saw the most dramatic annual changes. The number of units sold fell from 1,841 last year to 1,750 (estimated) in 2017, with sales volume falling to an estimated $8.1 billion this year from $9.3 billion in 2016.

Looking ahead to 2018, CityRealty.com is predicting average Manhattan apartment prices will fall to $2.1 million, with prices reflecting the “softening luxury market.” If so, this would be the first dip in average prices recorded since 2007, according to CityRealty.com’s data.

"With fewer sales but higher prices, the ultra-luxury category propped up the market and made up for losses in other areas. This is all a reaction to the skyrocketing prices that have characterized Manhattan real estate over the past few years. Now the market is settling, and we project a slight decrease in the average price of a Manhattan apartment in 2018 for the first time in several years," CityRealty.com’s Director of Research Gabby Warshawer tells BuzzBuzzNews.

Manhattan condo and co-op prices are projected to hold steady from this year.

And, for what it’s worth, CityRealty.com accurately predicted the static nature seen in the Manhattan housing market this year based on examining market conditions over the last decade.

Click here to read the entire report.

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