Who is the most trustworthy expert on Toronto’s real estate market?
March 14, 2013

trustworthy


  • Best place on meth

    Congratulations to Brad J. Lamb for receiving 1 vote – from himself.

  • Will Dunning

    Not to be modest – but I should be included here: Will Dunning

  • Best place on meth

    Correction, he’s now ordered all of his employees to vote for him.

  • Dyslexic Smoking Man

    This is bull shit why is the smoking man not on this list, I will tell you who its not…LaughingCon

  • JamesVool

    Why would you put a Realtor on this list ? They have a one-sided perception of market as they have a huge conflict of interest. For them it is always a good time to buy a place or sell one. Real estate agents should be renamed to motivational speakers!

  • Marco

    Garth gets my vote – has no agenda aside from representing clear unbiased conclusions based on market data, technical analysis and a continual balancing with fundamentals.

    Brad – gotta be kidding right?

  • tim

    Garth has a lot of good arguments in favor of real estate being overvalued, but he has been consistently wrong in calling for a crash for over four years now. He has now backpedalled, saying that we won’t have a crash but a correction and then a slow melt. He seems to have softened his stance on real estate dropping sharply.

  • Dyslexic Smoking Man

    Gartho is kicking butt, thats why Im voting for david, 1 % who is this losser

  • Dude

    It is really funny, Garth going to get the top vote on the home turf of his opponents. Hilarious.

  • Dyslexic Smoking Man

    Fuck Shit Pussy cunt, just wana see if the this is moderated…..Its what I do

  • Salzburg

    It cannot be Brad, thanks to him there are too many new condo owners in tears.

  • salzburg

    It cannot be Brad, he left too may new condo owners in tears.

  • D-licious

    And the melt is on, TD agrees…

    Did you make your 87% this year??

  • std

    What is this a pump and dump website? Anyone with real ones can see where Canadian Re is headed. But Canadians are too polite to point out the obvious, especially when the message is negative?

  • Chico

    The Myth of the Toronto Condo Bubble?!?! Is that some sort of a joke? He doesn’t honestly take himself seriously does he?

  • Graham

    Brad Lamb should be voted as the most trustworthy real estate expert in Toronto as who knows condos better than him. Look at how many he has developed and sold in his career…it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that one out!

  • Graham

    Garth has an agenda…doesn’t he sell books on this topic?

  • BugaBoy

    All hail the mighty Garth. Wiping the floor with that ass-wipe Lamb.

  • salzburg

    you should watch your language!!!

  • GeaterFraud

    Nobody has been more wrong about real estate than Garth Turder. He has a following of sheeple who kiss his a$$ and vote for him in a stacked poll. Google “Garth Turner – bad predictions” and see what comes up.

  • Potato

    I know I wouldn’t win, but my spreadsheets and I didn’t even make the cut?

  • BJ (Brad Jr)

    I am brads illegimate son. Daddy, please come home, our condo is lonely without you.

  • Charles

    I will never buy a house or condo at current prices – NEVER, so get used to declining sales. When the average person can no longer afford the average house/condo, stick a fork in it, it’s done.

  • James

    Brad lamb getting his ass handed to him. Looks good.

  • Condo No More

    Garth is crushing these other self-promoting lords of bullshit. Shame on them, and the havoc they have sown in the markets and lives of those who have bought into this horrible real estate bubble.

  • Brad “Lion in Lamb’s Clothing”

    Brad Lamb? Because why would he stretch the truth about the condo market right? RIGHT?

  • Nadi

    The only one to trust.
    Garth Turner!!!

  • Meow

    The person that taught you to spell.

  • Ben

    Garth does not have profit agenda. I wonder about the others??????????????????????

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DIPBHMNN6Q2REQAQTX7645SXAQ AznxProd *

    I’ve seen some Brad Lamb marketing math and I sure hope it’s ineptness because the other alternative doesn’t suggest trust.

  • Richy

    I think everyone knows that Garth is a joke, and all these poor saps are shamed because they don’t own real estate and bought into his garbage.

    Apparently though, from this poll, he has a large following of losers. Poor souls, and probably just poor.

  • Charlie

    lol – are you for real? I own RE and certainly not poor, and I’m far closer to agreeing with Garth than I am to Brad. Sales are way down and condo prices are already falling. Deal with it.

  • Aussie Roy

    It’s a one horse race really, a vote for the only person who doesn’t have a vested interest – Garth. I’m not sure why anyone would let themselves be directed by people with such a conflict of interest. How many so called RE gurus called any of the other housing bubbles around the globe. Time to look at wages compared to RE prices, such a simple measurement yet so ignored by many in the industry. Funny that this simple measurement can be used to indicate a bubble but not one realtor will use it. It’s not different anywhere, Canadians have been sucked in to this global house debt bubble.

  • Gross negligence

    Ottawa is using CMHC to cook the real estate books — with Canadian taxpayers $600-billion deep in the doodoo. Absolutely no consequences as banks throws mortgages at anyone, knowing Canadians, not the banks, bear all the risk. Shame on the media and elected opposition MPs for letting this boil fester.

  • Aussie Roy

    Do you think?….. Let me guess you don’t like Shiller or any other person smart enough to see any of the global house price, debt bubbles – LOL.

  • Carpe Diem

    Hey Rob,

    Garth got my vote, but you were second on the list … I’m sure if Garth was not here, you’d be getting the votes … keep it up!

  • Dave

    It’s link bait, pure and simple – Garth knows it but he’s playing along anyway. I think he must get a kick out of directing his minions to various backwaters of the web to vote in these things.

  • Chasicakes

    Haha….I sold and am now liquid and diversified, unlike my old neighbours in Vancouver whose condos languish on the market for months with no viewings let alone buyers. I have choices now that others don’t. We are iconoclastic which is just the opposite of Sheeple. Make many commissions lately?

  • marco

    Graham, Do you have a facebook account suggesting you work for Brad? Did you guys go to a MAC marketing solutions seminar?

  • kilby1

    Pretty obvious to anybody with a brain that real estate is no longer a free ride to prosperity. Canada has the most overpriced real estate in the world (compared to income)

  • Ted

    Turner has a really bad track record. I remember an article 13 years ago or so were he was recommending mortgaging your home equity and using the loan proceeds to buy technology stocks. Sadly many people approaching retirement bought tech mutual funds on this advice. They did poorly and lost their homes but Turner and the sponsoring fund salesman did much better. When I hear his name I think of a carnival barker. Turner pushed Nortel when it was $40. Six months later it was worthless.

  • marco

    Semantics… A crash is an unmitigated disaster… A slow melt is a long protracted disaster. The gov. put individuals at risk in stimulating the conomy through consumer and real estate debt inflation – You can see how much additional debt households, WITH and WITHOUT mortgage load picked up since 2008 by a mere search on all major search engines. When you compare this to the additional liability taken on by CHMC, the amount of condo purchases that were made with sub-prime morgages – those with less than 10% down in REAL cash (eg. not borrowed from a “fovorite uncle” or in some sort of cashback arrangement) and on a 20 year amort – and cross reference the growth of ownership across the condo segment with real incomes and net savings rates – you tell me if this is a market boom based on fundamentals. The myth of resource booms and export led economy – that sector counts for about 7% of GDP – real estated and derivative sectors count for just under 20%… Look at the amount of HELOC funded spending, savings rates and leverage rates of Canadians compared to the other G-8 (or 20 to make it more fun) then something smells somewhat rotten. If you add into this smell the stench of fundamentals like rent to purchase ratios, gap between resale and new market etc. blended with the most restrictive data regime (le’t find a Zillows.ca and open reporting of all reposessed homes being sold) and it becomes a downright revolting stench. Brad et. al – you made good. Good on you for reading the market and creating products everyone wanted at the hand of some very creative marketing. Have the grace to say “enough” before you take it all down. The country is not much fun already, but how much fun will it be when a whole generation and class of people will be wiped out financially like in so many other countries with far more balaced economies? Who cares about agendas – study the data and make up your own mind! – Sheeple!

  • GreaterFraud

    Why does Garth Turder have a man-crush on Brad Lamb? Seems to be very pre-occupied with him. Jealousy?

  • PC

    Garth is kicking butt, like we knew he would :)

  • Aussie Roy

    I love the “well if you are not leveraged in to RE” you must be poor – LOL.

    I own my home, have a great investment portfolio and wouldn’t touch RE with barge pole, how could anyone say this asset class isn’t over cooked by debt?..

    Seriously has no one learnt anything about RE bubbles?, I’m so sick of the delusional answer that it is some who different in Canada, it’s a global debt bubble. Blind Freddy can see that it’s DEBT that has driven RE prices and not wages over the past few years. Don’t believe me?, look at the numbers yourself. How much have wages risen compared to house prices.

    The answer is in the MATH, it’s a debt bubble. Can you say POP…

  • Gary

    There’s a circle-jerk happening tonight on Turner’s blog.

  • lord british

    If by poor you mean no mortgage and a diversified portfolio, then ya i’m poor.

  • bust a nut on your face!

    Garth, Ben, and David are all serving the same thing, a correction. They all feel that a meltdown is unlikely, but a correction large enough to make life suck for many Canadians. Garth gets his votes because of his blog, which is over active. They have all written exceptional articles and are all worth reading.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_L4SMMUQGSOH7WYZJ6WLU3V5NJA Wolfgang

    Its actually $900B because the CMHC provides $300B of 90% re-insurance to Genworth and Canada Guaranty.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_L4SMMUQGSOH7WYZJ6WLU3V5NJA Wolfgang

    Did you know that many REITs are using Brad Lambs’ failed accounting, of marking their portfolios to market every year and calling the appreciation ‘earnings’? REITs are another severely overvalued sector. That is my only beef with Garth Turner — he speaks at length about the housing bubble, but has actually hinted to his readers that they should own some REITs in their portfolio when most are already severely overweight real estate.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_L4SMMUQGSOH7WYZJ6WLU3V5NJA Wolfgang

    I fall into the meltdown camp. A mere ‘correction’ is just wishful thinking at this point.

  • Jeff

    You’re right, Richy (not) Rich, we don’t own RE, because we sold at the peak, and aren’t riding the roller coaster back to the bottom.

  • Gary M

    Turner could care less about you. He’s a financial advisor selling “diversified portfolios” to middle-income earners, who are now too house-poor to buy into an overpriced equity market, and who have somewhat lost trust of financial markets over the last few years. That is why his financial advise is always the same: sell the house and stay “liquid” by maxing out on TFSAs, but get an advisor to do it for you! Try emailing him, he will volunteer his services… for a fee, of course.

    By the way, this is the same Turner that predicted the Dow at 40,000, at the height of the tech bubble some years ago.

    My vote goes to Ben Rabidoux.

  • Gary M

    Turner could care less about you. He’s a financial advisor selling “diversified portfolios” to middle-income earners, who are now too house-poor to buy into an overpriced equity market, and who have somewhat lost trust of financial markets over the last few years. That is why his financial advise is always the same: sell the house and stay “liquid” by maxing out on TFSAs, but get an advisor to do it for you! Try emailing him, he will volunteer his services… for a fee, of course.

    By the way, this is the same Turner that predicted the Dow at 40,000, at the height of the tech bubble some years ago.

    My vote goes to Ben Rabidoux.

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  • blogdog

    I’ve been following RE for years, including owning my own properties, and Mr. Turner is the one on this list whose viewpoint I trust the most. The rest have axes to grind. Those who call Turner’s blog readers ‘sheeple’ just can’t admit the truth to themselves. The truth is evident now, though it did take a while to see.

  • Property Manager

    My vote goes to Rob McLister from canadianmortgagetrends.com, way more knowledgable about banking, real estate , data, and parameters

  • Rob

    way to go Garth. Well earned

  • Joe

    Or is Brad Lamb pre-occupied with lying and BS to try and salvage his condo developments ?

  • joe

    what an idiotic answer ….

  • Susan B

    I don’t know about Rabidoux or any of the other guys but, Garth Turner seems to be falling in line with Allen Greenspan, and Harvey Eisen. The technicals need to fall inline with the fundamentals. The fundamentals of the world economy and real estate bubbles really looks to me like cash is King and Patience will prosper.

  • Sleeping like a baby.

    Yes, I am one of those “poor renters” with a kickass portfolio that just keeps going up. The Hon. G Turner manages my portfolio for me for just 1% per year. I keep my mouth shut around my over-mortgaged co-workers as they complain about having no money left over.

  • Victoria K.

    Please cancel the poll as unfair, Buzzbuzz. Isn’t it clear that Garth Turner’s blog fans vote way more than one time each? Ever since he asked them to vote (shame on you, Garth), his numbers propel in a most unnatural way.

  • MarcoDi

    You do realize, if you invested in real estate when Turner started to tell you not to, you would have now doubled your investment?

  • anon

    Where are the women? … and if anyone says in their well-modelled kitchen I’m going to blow a fuse.

  • salzburg

    I like Ben too, and for Garth, his fees are very low compared to others.

  • salzburg

    I think you are wrong, one can only vote once.

  • DDCorkum

    What are you saying, that people who don’t own real estate are automatically a lesser class deserving shame? I have more than enough money to buy a home if I wanted to, doesn’t mean I need to own it to feel secure.

  • Frank

    Where all the Real Estate pumpers? After reading the comments, I could count the number of pumpers on one hand. Seems like most of them have thrown in the towel since its pretty obvious where RE is headed. For the ones that are foolish enough to post, you should try making your own blog where you cannot remain anonymous. Make some predictions of your own and then you might be able to appreciate how difficult it is. Pumpers are tough when they’re anonymous and on the internet using high school tactics in an attempt to intimidate and mislead people. Try using numbers, deductive reasoning and something called facts when making an argument.

  • ahutpub

    What a bubble we are in, Townhomes in richmond hill, ontario selling for 600K , what are people smoking. Currently 50K down..Let see how all this plays out and rents at 1750 to 1800..enough to carry mortgages of 400K

  • http://profiles.google.com/mikeditto30 mike ditto

    sm is a bigger loser than all these guys put together, that’s saying something.

  • TomJ

    I personally enjoy the advice , info and low mortgage rates offered at http://www.torontomortgagesite.com

  • sky’s the limit?

    Dr Evil: “Every home in Toronto is now worth…one million dollars!”

  • lamblamb

    Garth is hairy and scary. I voted for Lamb – the bold guy.

  • Dom

    We realtors have made alot of money so most of us don’t care if the housing bubble crashes. Yes Canada is a bubble but mostly places like Vancouver and Toronto are in such a huge bubble that even realtors are selling our homes and cashing in. I did so last spring at the peak of the housing bubble. In case you haven’t notices sales have crashed 25% or greater and prices are down 10% since last year.

  • GBV

    Could not have said it better myself.

    I owe Garth Turner for cluing me into the slaughter that will be the Canadian housing markets in the near future, but as my knowledge of the world grew it quickly became apparently Mr. Turner is a shill.

    He suggests you sell your “risky” home only to jump into a just as risky stock market. Whether he espouses preferreds, ETFs, or other “safe” investments that net him an annual 11% it doesn’t matter – markets are rigged, and those of us who put our wealth into play are “muppets” compared to sophisticated Wall Street types and their HFT algos.

    Ben gets my vote by default, even though I think his predictions are too conservative. Too bad this list didn’t have Nicole Foss from the Automatic Earth, or ZeroHedge (though a blog, not a person) as options…

  • GreaterFraud

    Frank, you may not realize it, but you’re pumping a crash. Same BS with a different spin.

  • scotto

    You should see him with his squirrel hat on, real scary.

  • Frank

    I suppose you also believe that anyone who talks negatively about Real Estate are directly responsible for causing any kind of downturn in Real Estate prices? Keep spinning.

  • kilby1

    Never said crash…Correction. If not for the interest rates being kept so low this would have happened years ago

  • kilby1

    Only time i made a lot of money was on those Technology stocks, sold at the peak.

  • kilby1

    Intelligent investors take what they need from Garth Turner, I have been following him for years and don’t always agree with him and don’t follow all his advice, however we sold our home in the Okanagan in March 2011 and after realizing a good profit only now are looking to purchase another home this fall with the cash from the sale growing 6% over the last 24 months.

  • kilby1

    Trustworthy because he has sold them?

  • Wise old geezer

    Garth Turner gets my vote for his witty and very informative web site. He is not trying to sell anything to his daily readers but put them on an informed path. He has had it right with the housing market downturn and so many don’t listen as they choose to ignore what is happening coast to coast. Thanks Garth for your advice.

  • Troy

    Your right Dave. It’s much better to trust a condo developer who has millions of dollars in profits if the public trusts him to buy one more unit…

  • ahutpub

    you must be a real estate agent, Thier is absolutely no logic in this market where home prices go up the way they have. There are a large number of baby boomers ready to retire, canadian economy is in the doldrums, it takes 5 times salary to buy a home and we have been through the same cycle before in the 80′s ..when we lost our pants..Look to the US to see what is going to happen to us. What happens in the US happens to Canada 5 years later..Some kind of weird lag effect

  • Edward Ferguson

    Never mind whether there’s a bubble or not, the simple fact that Garth is trying to save many first-time buyers from a debt load they will never be able to pay off makes him a pretty decent guy in my books. The average person in Toronto makes $56K a year. Those folks should not be conned/persuaded/tempted into $800K homes.

  • GreaterFraud

    I have no agenda. The market will do what it wants, and I actually hope prices go down. I just pointed out your hypocrisy. Your agenda is as clear as any real estate pumper’s.

  • Gary

    Garth is an attention-whore. He needs adulation from mindless sheeple to get through the day. It makes up for the “shortcomings” in his life.

  • Victoria

    I voted for Garth but I would also have voted for Ben.

  • http://www.facebook.com/genuine.lam Genuine Lam

    Where is Sir Barry Lyon on this list???

  • http://www.facebook.com/genuine.lam Genuine Lam

    Where is Barry Lyon on this list?

  • Brad J. Lamb

    This is Brad Lamb, myself or my legal counsel did not authorize the use of my name in this poll. Remove any reference to myself immediately or face elevated legal involvement.

  • Blobby

    >He suggests you sell your “risky” home only to jump into a just as risky stock market.

    I’ve been reading his blog for years – and he has said nothing of the sort. I suggest you take some reading comprehension lessons.

  • Blobby

    Show me these blog posts of his where he’s been “calling for a crash”. He has done nothing of the sort.

  • dosouth

    Turner didn’t create this poll but he’s wiping the floor with all these guys. Don’t start something if you don’t already know the answer…… put your man panties on and face the results!

  • http://twitter.com/minus40 minus40

    I did, and it’s hilarious. Check it out:

    https://www.google.ca/#hl=en&output=search&sclient=psy-ab&q=+%22Garth+Turner+-+bad+predictions%22&oq=+%22Garth+Turner+-+bad+predictions%22&gs_l=hp.3…767.767.0.1260.1.1.0.0.0.0.374.374.3-1.1.0.les%3Bckwqrh..0.0…1.1.6.psy-ab.6Ye9rR1gUU8&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_cp.r_qf.&bvm=bv.43828540,d.dmg&fp=3f1e61731c568cda&biw=1314&bih=546

  • dave

    If you had invested your $CADin the S&P 500 at the same time you would have tripled your investment.

  • nocte_volens

    And here you are, giving him attention. rotflmao

  • TempestMaker

    I game from greaterfool and voted for Rob Carrick. Not because I think he’s particularly knowledgeable, but because he’s probably the least biased of the ones I’d heard of.

  • TOC

    It doesn’t surprise me to see a bunch of house pumpers selling mis-information on a “YOU CAN TRUST ME FOR INFORMATION” List. Just Like a bunch of sleazy car salesman at used car lot.

  • skoch

    ya, maybe you should read them

  • salzburg

    thank you for your honesty.

  • J

    Sold last year at the highest number our complex had ever seen. Love being liquid and continue to rent. 2+1 does not equal a 3 bedroom so I wish the MLS would stop doing that. Toronto needed 3 bedroom condos a long time ago and the city needed to force it. Neither did their job so they both made their bed. Love watching it unfold as my investments go up.

  • Phil

    Garth all the way. He’s been predicting this correction based on market fundamentals; economic sense and just plain common sense. Unlike Garth every realtor is going to have an agenda. What did you expect Mr. Lamb?

  • Z86

    You might have the blog mistaken for your household. You offer no backup for anything you say. You sound like a real estate agent or a mortgage broker.

  • Patches

    Realtors and spec developers hate Turner….no way!? Shocking! News flash for you fools (realtors), people are catching on to your lies without following Turner’s blog….any idiot can see that real estate is slowing, and will continue to do so…..whats that noise? I hear bubbles popping!

  • Patches

    So what you’re saying is that saving money (staying liquid), and not entering a market at it’s peak is stupid? Wow, sure hope your not a financial adviser! It’s common sense to anybody with half a brain…I know I would’t buy stocks at their peak, so why the hell would I buy a house at it’s peak price! EVERYBODY LISTEN! Gary has got it figured out…don’t save in TFSA’s, buy a house now so the price will either stay flat or possibly decrease for at least 5 years…SIGN ME UP! haha, you fool!

  • Gary M

    Way to misinterpret absolutely everything I said. I never implied that buying real estate at this point was a good investment. And I did say that equities were overvalued (although they could still go up due to excess liquidity, and of course, people’s irrationality). I have my own way to hedge for what is coming in the next few months, but it does not involve mutual funds or ETFs. Not that you are interested, anyway.

    The point I was trying to make is that, just like when developers lure you into buying condos, there is a definite conflict of interest when Garth Turner promotes “diversification”, “growth”, “7% return”, etc. How hard is that to understand?

    Besides, aside from Garth Turner’s bias, I’ve been following him ever since his Toronto Sun days and I’m very well aware of his infamous track record. Why/how would anyone listen to a guy that has been so consistently wrong on his predictions over the years?

  • Dan

    Sure Gareth is wrong. So is the Economist, MacLean’s Magazine. Fitch, TD Bank, Whispers in the Rainforest, and many other respectable sources. If you think that real estate is not crashing you’re illiterate.

  • Need Sleep

    Victoria, most people in this poll have asked people to vote for them. Garth’s fans aren’t voting multiple times. It would be nice if we could rank people as I would like to support most of the choices. Or at least have an option for ‘Anyone but Brad…’

  • Silentblogger

    Say what you will kids, Turner is a realist – Shill? sure….right…um….hmmm… for fee advisors rather than commission driven ones that don’t charge but are paid by commissions on the non performing products they sell…oh so much better…and the thing is who you hire is up to you…OH NO! someone wants me to PAY for services rendered?? GASP!! what is this?? Capitalist run amok?? ahhh!!! better run back to the bank and get that safe 2% before the big bad wolf gets you! while inflation runs away at 2.5%!! HEY wait a sec!! Gary M…is your real initials B L and do you drive a Rolls?? hmmmm….

  • GBV

    Been reading his blog for years too, and pretty sure I “comprehend” what be is suggesting. But thanks for the great advice.

  • Marco Di

    Why do you say we are at a peak?! Far from it.

  • Marco Di

    I have heard of very few condo owners in tears, with the exception of people who bought at The Trump. Everyone that I know who bought condos have made a little fortune and have a great ROI.

    Who are you talking to?!

  • Marco Di

    We have done well, and made lots of money. No need to defend it.

  • MarcoDi

    Over the past 8 or 9 years?! No.

  • http://www.facebook.com/lisa.k.downham Lisa Klosner Downham

    Why are there no woman?

  • http://www.buzzbuzzhome.com BuzzBuzzHome

    Hi Lisa,

    We included the people who we thought were most frequently quoted in the press about the Toronto real estate market. In our next poll we’re set on displaying the diversity of the industry, its spokespeople and its critics.

  • Anthony@TorontoCondoSpace.com

    Garth Turner is welcomed to look at my real estate investment when I cash out in 2017 and compare it to his investment portfolio. I’ll bet it supersedes his investment strategies. There are ALWAYS opportunities in real estate no matter if the market is at it’s peak. My real estate friend just made a cool 100k or a 45% return in under a year with his investment. With 250k down and netting a 100k return. Can Garth do the same if I came to him with 250k? I highly doubt it.

    If you understand the margins in real estate, the returns can be very profitable and safe.

  • Bear raid

    One of the worse mistakes I ever made about 10 years
    ago was reading Garth. Funny this is the first time
    in about a decade since I’ve read his stuff, and it’s
    still the same stuff. Brutal!!

  • @RealtorGAB

    haha awesome

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  • http://www.homeexpertsrealty.net/ Home Experts Realty

    LJ Hooker and Julian Pilarski should also be included in this list of most trustworthy expert on Toronto’s real estate market.